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Ghanaians should brace for another round of fuel price hikes at the pumps, as the Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC) projects increases of between 6% and 9% during the second pricing window of July 2025. The expected adjustment, set to take effect from Wednesday, July 16, is based on prevailing market indicators, including the impact of a new government levy and slight currency depreciation.
According to COPEC’s market analysis released on Tuesday, July 15, the average retail price of petroleum products is projected to rise by 8% across fuel types, although variations are expected depending on product and market conditions.
Expected Price Adjustments
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- Petrol: Prices are expected to increase by 6.47%, rising from the current average of GHS11.59 to an estimated GHS12.34 per litre.
- Diesel: A sharper jump of 9.30% is projected, with the mean price expected to move from GHS12.97 to approximately GHS14.17 per litre.
- Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): In a slight relief for households, LPG is expected to record a marginal decrease of 0.45%, dropping from its current price of GHS14.00 to around GHS13.94 per kilogram.
COPEC attributed the looming price hikes primarily to the implementation of a new GHS1 per litre energy sector levy, aimed at addressing shortfalls and repaying legacy debts within the sector. This fiscal measure, introduced by the Ministry of Energy earlier this month, is exerting direct upward pressure on pump prices, despite marginally favourable global market trends.
Interestingly, COPEC’s forecast comes at a time when global crude oil prices have declined by 4.89%, from $74.43 to $70.79 per barrel—an indication that international market conditions alone are not responsible for the anticipated price increases.
Another contributing factor is the slight depreciation of the Ghanaian cedi, which slid by 0.47% against the US dollar during the review period, moving from GHS10.5288 to GHS10.5785 per dollar. Although modest, this currency weakness increases the cost of petroleum imports, further tightening pressure on retail pricing.
COPEC noted that while the projected figures are based on the latest data and economic indicators, actual pump prices may vary by ±5%, depending on competitive dynamics among oil marketing companies (OMCs) and further developments in forex and crude markets.
“The projections assume stability in Free-On-Board (FOB) prices and the exchange rate. Any unexpected volatility in these factors could significantly alter pump prices,” the statement cautioned.
The anticipated hike in fuel prices is likely to reignite concerns over rising transport fares, food prices, and the general cost of living. With inflation already exerting pressure on household incomes, any increase in diesel and petrol prices is expected to have ripple effects across sectors.
Economic analysts warn that the new Energy Sector Levy, though designed to strengthen long-term financial stability in the energy sector, could burden consumers if not managed alongside complementary relief measures.
COPEC is calling on stakeholders, including government and regulatory bodies, to consider options that will cushion consumers against frequent and sharp price adjustments, including strategic fuel price stabilisation mechanisms.
The revised fuel prices will officially take effect from Wednesday, July 16, 2025, as the second pricing window of the month opens.
Read below the statement by COPEC
CHAMBER OF PETROLEUM CONSUMERS – (COPEC)
ACCRA
14 July 2025
* FUEL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO GO UP 6%-9% IN THE SECOND PRICING WINDOW OF JULY 2025*
The current mean fuel price is expected to go up by about 8% in the next Pricing Window
Analysis of Projection
Barring any unforeseen major changes in global Petroleum FOB prices and the Dollar: Cedi exchange rates, indications across the downstream petroleum market are that, in the next window beginning 16 July 2025,
i. the mean pump retail price of Petrol is expected to go up by 6.47% of the current mean price of GHS11.59/L
ii. The mean price of diesel is also expected to go up by 9.30% of the current mean price of GHS12.97/L and
iii. Mean LPG price per kg is also to go down by about -0.45%.
Acknowledging that, the Crude price has gone down by -4.89% from $74.43/barrel to $70.79/barrel and that the Cedi has slightly depreciated relatively to the Dollar from an average rate of $1:GHS10.5288 to $1:GHS10.5785 (-0.4720%), coupled with the introduction of the Energy Sector shortfall and debt repayment levy of GHS1 by the Ministry of Energy, the following will constitute the projected mean retail prices for Petroleum products to within ±5% of COPEC’s projection starting from 16 July 2025.
Petrol .. GHS12.34/L
Diesel .. GHS14.18/L
The Mean Price for Petrol and Diesel..GHS13.26/L
LPG.. GHS11.55/kg
Thus, a 14.5 kg of LPG cylinder would be expected to be sold at GHS167.43 within the next window.
Below are the detailed descriptions.
1. PETROL
Though the international FOB price of petrol has decreased from $740.93/MT to $716.30/MT (-3.32%), the retail price works up to GHS12.34/L
Thus, the retail price of Petrol is expected to increase by 6.47% of the current mean pump retail price of GHS11.59/L, to close selling between GHS11.72/L and GHS12.96 /L , within ±5% range of COPEC’s projected figure of GHS12.34/L.
2. DIESEL
In the same manner, with the International FOB price of diesel increasing from $722.48/MT to $743.07/MT (2.85%), the projected mean retail pump price for the next window shall be GHS14.18/L
Diesel is therefore expected to increase in price by about 9.30% of the current mean pump retail price of GHS12.97/L to be selling between GHS13.47/L and GHS14.89/L , within ±5% range of COPEC’s projected figure of GHS14.18/L.
3.0 Mean Price of Petrol and Diesel
The mean price of petrol and diesel for the coming window per available parameters shall be GHS13.26/L . The mean pump price is therefore expected to increase by 7.96% over the current mean price of GHS12.28/L to be be selling between GHS12.60/L and GHS13.92/L, within ±5% of COPEC’s projected mean price of GHS13.26/L.
4. LPG
With the international FOB price of LPG decreasing from $492.70/MT to $465.52/MT (-5.41%), the projected retail price of LPG is expected to be on the average at GHS11.55/kg.
Thus, within ±5% error, LPG is expected to be selling between GHS10.97/kg and GHS12.12/ kg.
Remarks:
1. COPEC is very much appreciative of the fairly stable Dollar:Cedi exchange rate, which is being enjoyed in the fuel industry.
* It is anticipated that the Dollar: Cedi exchange rate will continue to improve for the benefit of the general consumers of petroleum products.
2. COPEC maintains that, Government must do all it can to reduce taxes on LPG or to subsidize the price of LPG to promote and encourage its nationwide accessibility and usage which will eventually help save the environment from further degradation by the use of firewoods.
3. Currently, the total taxes and levies on retail prices of Petrol and Diesel is about 26.55%.
* COPEC is requesting for the reduction of tax rates or to take off some of the fuel taxes to lessen the burden on consumers.
* Alternatively, a formula can be adopted to vary the total levies with change in the Dollar:Cedi rate.
4. We further appeal to the government not to relent in getting Tema Oil Refinery (TOR) back on stream in order to avoid or reduce the importation of finished products, with possible associated fuel contamination.
5. COPEC wishes to appeal to the OMCs not to unduly increase fuel prices with the introduction of the new e-levy against the interest of consumers in the next window.
Duncan Amoah.
Executive Secretary.
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