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Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has projected that Baba Jamal’s support in the Ayawaso East NDC parliamentary primary is unlikely to exceed 38%, citing recent polling data and prevailing voter trends in the constituency.
According to the projection, Hajia Amina Adam, widow of the late Member of Parliament for Ayawaso East, Mahama Naser Toure, is firmly in the lead with an estimated 54% support ahead of the polls scheduled for Saturday, February 7.
Mr Dankwah noted that even under the most favourable conditions for Baba Jamal, the data show a significant gap between the two leading contenders, making a dramatic late shift in voter preference improbable.
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He explained that the forecast carries a margin of error of about 3.2%, which still leaves Hajia Amina Adam comfortably ahead even at the narrowest end of the range.
“We asked NDC members in our polls whether it was wrong for Hajia to contest, and 66% of NDC voters disagreed. This means they do not think she should be prevented from contesting. When we asked the delegates, 58% of them also disagreed.
“So both the delegates and the party faithful disagree with that call, which suggests that some people are pushing a narrative that is not selling, yet they keep promoting it.
“I think they miscalculated the dynamics of Ayawaso. The margin of error in my prediction is about 3.2%. Based on that, I project Hajia to win with about 54%, while Baba Jamal’s highest share will be around 38%,” he said.
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