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Fitch Solutions is projecting that the Bank of Ghana will continue its monetary easing cycle over the next two years, cutting the policy rate to 16.50% by the end of 2026.
The forecast, delivered at the 2026 PwC Post-Budget Forum in Accra, reflects confidence in Ghana’s strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals and a sustained decline in inflation.
Mike Kruiniger, Assistant Director at Fitch Solutions, told participants that Ghana’s improving economic environment has created room for further rate cuts.
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He noted that the central bank has already embarked on what has become the world’s fastest monetary easing cycle this year.
“Rates have remained elevated, but the Bank of Ghana launched a decisive easing cycle this summer, cutting by 650 basis points so far, the fastest monetary easing cycle globally this year,” he said.
According to Fitch Solutions, inflation’s return to the BoG’s target band, combined with stable foreign exchange inflows and a relatively firm cedi, will continue to support monetary loosening. Kruiniger said these conditions underpin the projection that the policy rate will gradually fall to 16.50% by late 2026.
While acknowledging that monetary policy effects take time to filter through, Kruiniger expects lending activity to rebound strongly in the coming quarters after nearly three years of weakened private-sector credit growth.
On the broader economy, Fitch Solutions maintains an optimistic outlook for 2026. The firm forecasts that Ghana will outperform many emerging-market peers, projecting real GDP growth of 5.9% next year, up from 5.8% in 2025. The momentum, it says, will be driven by strong private consumption and a continued recovery in investment following the steep contraction seen in 2023.
“We see the 2026 budget as broadly supportive of growth,” Kruiniger said, adding that improving macroeconomic conditions have set the stage for sustained expansion.
However, the firm pointed to one major threat: rising insecurity in the Sahel. Kruiniger warned that the ongoing Islamist insurgency could pose significant risks to Ghana’s stability and economic progress if regional tensions spill over.
He cautioned that heightened security threats may force Ghana to allocate more resources to defence, potentially straining the fiscal framework and complicating the government’s growth agenda.
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