Ghana’s Telecom Policy Crossroads: The Confusion, Weak Structures and Real Risks

Telecommunications and digital technology are more than just keeping people connected. It is the foundation for education, commerce, agriculture, national security, healthcare, and national development as a whole. This is why the policies by which the sector is governed should be very clear and unambiguous. But as of now, we can’t say that for Ghana.

The country’s telecoms policy seems to be at crossroads, marked by significant shifts such as the wholesale 5G policy through s special purpose vehicle, awarding of tech neutrality and extra 4G spectrum to the only SMP (significant market power) in the sector, debates over ISP access to 5G, and recently, the proposed absorption of/merger of AT Ghana (formerly AirtelTigo) by/with Telecel. It is not even clear exactly what it is.

These significant policy issues are being discussed with passion, but also with confusion. But it is a no brainer, that until and unless the policies around these issues are made clear, and are handled with stringent financial measures, and stakeholder engagement, the sector risks repeating the very past mistakes, which have resulted in the one-directional telecoms market structure in the country today.

The Current State of Play

Recent reporting confirms several key developments:

The Ministry of Communications, Digital Technology and Innovations has proposed a restructuring involving AT Ghana and Telecel. Although the Minister, Sam George, was earlier reported on the Ministry’s own LinkedIn page to have told workers of AT Ghana that the two companies were being  “merged,” he later clarified that, legally, it is not a merger or acquisition, but rather a regulatory intervention due to AT’s severe debt situation.

Per the Minister’s own earlier submission, government was presented with a debt of GHS1.5 billion by tower company ATC Ghana with respect to its services to AT Ghana during the era of the previous government. In addition to that, the Minister said AT Ghana has been carrying large losses of up to $10 million in the first eight months of the year.

Additionally, both AT and Telecel are described by some members of the Parliamentary oversight committee as financially constrained and unable to inject fresh capital. It is estimated that AT Ghana’s debt is around $200 million, while that of Telecel is also about $200 million or more. In fact, the Minister himself had openly accused Telecel of failing to inject the US$100 million capital they promised before the 70% majority shares in Ghana Telecoms was signed off to them.

While that matter is still hanging around the neck of Telecel, Group CEO Moh Damush has recently given another promise that the company is ready to invest some US$50 million to expand the network to accommodate the additional 3 million plus subscribers from AT Ghana. Whether the current government is going to take that second promise on face value or demand proof of funds a a condition precedent, is yet to be seen.

Meanwhile, the government has granted special purpose vehicle, NGIC (NextGen Infrastructure Company) an exclusive wholesale licence for 5G and instituted a shared/neutral host model for 4G. Under this model, other operators should be able to connect to NGIC rather than building a standalone 5G infrastructure. The Minister was clear in stating the choice to build a shared 5G network was a “deliberate policy decision” meant for the good of all stakeholders, including MNOs, ISPs, government and most importantly consumers.

AT Ghana and Telecel have indicated readiness to subscribe to the shared 5G model, in keeping with the government’s policy. But MTN Ghana, currently the dominant player, with a market share of over 75% in data, has resisted or delayed connecting to NGIC, raising questions about the implementation of policy. In fact, MTN Ghana’s CEO has openly stated that there is no business case for 5G in Ghana, simply because, according to him, there are only one million 5G-ready devices on MTN. This comment flies in the face of the government policy decision to pursue a shared network model. But the minister and industry regulator are dead silent on it. In fact, the minister rather repeated MTN’s chorus in a TV interview shortly after his appointment.

To deepen the confusion even further, recently, the MTN Group CEO, Ralph Mupita told journalists in Ghana that the company is in talks with the government and the regulator, which will hopefully result in the launch of 5G on MTN Ghana soon. Again, this flies in the face of the 10-year exclusivity clause in the licensing terms of NGIC with regards to 5G in particular. It is not clear if the Group CEO’s comment meant that MTN will soon connect to NGIC, or government is considering altering the terms of the NGIC license to make way for MTN to be granted a standalone 5G license.

Also Read: Elephant in the Room: MTN’s Confusing 5G Stance and What It Means for Ghana’s Digital Future

In the face of the dominant player dragging its feet on the shared 5G network model, ISPs would have been a critical channel (in addition to the two smaller MNOs) through which 5G could be made accessible to the public faster. But ISPs face a phased access restriction; the regulatory directives (policy decision) is that, for the first six months of NGIC operations, ISPs may only connect to NGIC’s wholesale infrastructure through an “anchor” MNO, not directly. After this period, ISPs are expected to have full rights to connect independently.

Clearly, there is a serious policy confusion in all these. And it gets even more confusing as government attempts to merge two weak players into a supposed competitive player. This is not new. Airtel and Tigo merged into AirtelTigo, which is today called AT Ghana. In fact, the merged entity, AT Ghana, which is now 100% owned by the government of Ghana, has become weaker and weaker over the years.

The Weakness of Merging Two Weak Entities

The sector Minister initially announced that government was in talks with Canadian investor, Rektron Group, which was reported to have offered US$150 million for a 60% stake in AT Ghana. But later, the minister announced that steps are far advanced to ‘merge’ AT and Telecel to create a stronger second player to compete with MTN. He actually mentioned three specific levels of the merger and stated that the process was far advanced. The minister has since clarified that it is an absorption and not a merger. But there are inherent weaknesses in merging two underperforming telcos without first resolving their foundational problems:

1. Debt burden will persist and perhaps magnify: Both AT and Telecel carry large debts. As stated above, the Minister himself said that AT owes over GH¢1.5 billion to one tower company, plus other legacy debt to other creditors and vendors, and had also piled up an additional $10 million debt in the last eight months alone. Telecel also has an estimated debt of well over US$200 million. Without a clean-up or capital injection, the merged entity may be larger but still fragile. Experts estimate that the merged entity would need at least $500 million to both settle its debts and invest. The minister even places the figure at US$600 million.
2. Operational inefficiencies are not magically eliminated by size: Two weak networks, poor billing systems, and low customer satisfaction will remain unless management and processes are overhauled. Per the minister’s own word, AT Ghana infrastructure has reached “end of life”. At this stage, about 3.2 million AT Ghana customers are already roaming on Telecel as part of the consolidation process. Telecel has announced that by close of 2026 all of AT Ghana’s subscribers would have been absorbed. But technical experts in the industry maintain that Telecel’s own network is as old as AT Ghana’s and therefore not particularly capable of taking on the AT Ghana load. Indeed, so far, the AT customers roaming on Telecel are still complaining of poor service quality.
3. Investment capacity remains constrained: Neither AT nor Telecel has demonstrated the ability to bring sufficient new investment. A merged entity still needs capital for 4G/5G upgrades and rural coverage expansion. Telecel has hinted of some US$50 million investment in the pipeline. That is just half of what experts estimate is required to make some meaningful impact. Merging AT and Telecel means the Rektron $150 million deal for AT Ghana is off the table. Meanwhile, the Minister himself has once accused Telecel of failing to bring in a $100 million upfront investment earlier. So, there is a big issue about capital investment, and there are no guarantees so far.
4. The market power of MTN will likely remain overwhelming: Even combined, AT + Telecel’s market share remains way below MTN’s. At the last count, MTN controlled at least 73% total market share, which leaves a combined AT and Telecel with only 27%, which is significantly low, given the fact that the Minister himself had said openly that any player with less than 30% market share cannot survive the market. Besides, MTN’s infrastructure, brand, and subscriber base give it a persistent competitive advantage. MTN has proven a tough customer to deal with at every turn in the development of the industry over the years. That trend will not be suspended for the merged entity to grow unless government mastered the courage to implement SMP interventions robustly. This writer is reliably informed that MTN has no interest in becoming a monopoly, so it is up to the government to implement the right policy measures to prevent that.
5. Risk of creating another fragile “second best”: The merged entity risks being a larger but still weak operator, which does little to drive genuine competition and innovation.

Member of Parliament for Mpraeso, Davis Ansah Opoku, has warned that “merging two struggling companies without new investment will only lead to more losses,” asking, “What happens to the huge debt [which] has not been dealt with.”

The Problem of ISP Access, Wholesale Model, and MTN SMP Risk

As stated earlier, under the current Regulator guidance, ISPs may only connect to NGIC’s wholesale infrastructure through an “anchor” MNO for the first six months. This phased approach ensures stability but delays ISP independence and competitive entry.

MTN Ghana, as the dominant operator and currently designated a Significant Market Power (SMP) entity, wields substantial influence over the market. SMP status legally obliges MTN to avoid anti-competitive practices, such as delaying interconnection or limiting access to wholesale infrastructure. MTN’s hesitation to fully connect to NGIC raises the risk of SMP-related regulatory breaches, potentially undermining the effectiveness of the wholesale model. Delays or restrictive practices could give MTN continued control over pricing, service innovation, and market entry for smaller providers.

Once the six-month anchor-MNO phase ends, ISPs are expected to connect directly to NGIC’s infrastructure, restoring competitive balance. But the interim period shows how MTN’s SMP position could reinforce market dominance and slow competition, impacting consumers and smaller operators alike. In fact, as MTN drags its feet on joining the shared network model, it has put more drive into expanding its fibre to the home (FTH) offering to capture the broadband market with its improved 4G network, ahead of the rollout of 5G.

This is the more reason why the restriction on ISP’s initial access, combined with MTN’s SMP leverage, risks reducing price competition, slowing innovation, and limiting consumer choice, contrary to the objectives of Ghana’s broadband policy.

Proposed Fixes: What We Can Do to Get It Right

Per conversations with industry experts on the matter, avoiding pitfalls means Ghana needs reforms that balance stability, fairness, and competitiveness:

Debt Audit and Restructuring before Mergers or Restructuring

There is a need to transparently quantify all debts owed by AT and Telecel, especially to tower companies, creditors, and regulatory agencies. A restructuring plan must be created, which includes write-downs, renegotiation, or phased repayment backed by fresh capital. Only after debts are managed should any merger or restructuring proceed.

Requirement for Fresh Capital and Operational Turnaround

AT and Telecel must commit to a credible capital injection plan and management overhaul. The regulator must then enforce performance milestones: network coverage, subscriber growth, and customer satisfaction. This is non-negotiable.

Clarity and Speed in Policy Implementation

In all of this, the regulator must also ensure that NGIC issues clear timelines for all operators, including MTN, to connect once robustness, reliability, and coverage meet market standards/expectations. This is critical because one of the arguments against NGIC is that till date, there is no network for any player to connect to even if they wanted to. Indeed, the two MNOs with connecting entity licenses are not technically ready to connect and the only player who is technically ready, MTN, had refused to apply for a connecting entity license.

But it is still very important for the regulator to formally monitor and enforce these timelines, ensuring that no operator delays access to wholesale infrastructure beyond the approved period. It would also be useful for ISPs to gain a timely “connecting entity” status to ensure a level playing field after the 6-months-long anchor-MNO phase.

Regulatory Independence and Enforcement

The NCA must actively enforce rules around infrastructure sharing, licensing, and SMP obligations. How NCA has remained indifferent to and silent on MTN’s posturing on the infrastructure sharing for 5G is surprising.

Merger or Restructuring Conditions

As suggested earlier, any AT–Telecel restructuring must be conditional. There must be proof of fresh capital, clean balance sheets, improved customer metrics, expanded rural coverage, and transparent governance.

Stakeholder Engagement and Transparency

Regular public consultation involving ISPs, consumer groups, tower companies, operators, the Ministry, and the NCA is critical to this whole drive to addressing the policy confusion. In the spirit of transparency, there will be a need to publish progress reports, particularly regarding debts resolution, NGIC implementation, ISP access, and merger milestones among other things.

Safeguards for Consumer Welfare

Ensure pricing remains affordable, service quality is high, and rural areas are included. This means the regulator must monitor outcomes and enforce compliance.

How These Fixes Benefit All Stakeholders

• Consumers: faster, affordable broadband and mobile services, especially in underserved areas.
• Operators: AT–Telecel can become a credible challenger; MTN faces real competition.
• Towercos: overdue accounts resolved, securing network stability.
• ISPs: phased access ensures they can compete independently post anchor-MNO period.
• Government: strengthened credibility, reduced fiscal risk, and better digital inclusion outcomes.
• Investors: transparency and restructuring improve confidence and sector attractiveness.

If Ghana gets it right, the result is a stronger, fairer, and more resilient telecoms sector player, capable of competing meaningfully with MTN and delivering for all citizens. If not, we risk cementing inequality – fast, affordable connectivity for some, and continued exclusion and high cost for many.

For policymakers, regulators, and industry leaders, the time for clarity is now.

 

The author, Samuel Dowuona, is a multiple awarding winning telecoms and technology journalist with many years of experiences in churning out articles that influence industry policies at both the regulatory and operator levels. He can be reached at dowuonasamuel24@gmail.com 

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